Title: AEEA 2026 Research Priorities: Planetary Orbits, Impact Risk, and Extinction Cycles
Subtitle: Reproducible science with falsifiable predictions, control models, and public-facing deliverables.
Who we are
AEEA is a nonprofit research initiative focused on long-horizon catastrophic-risk science. In 2026 we will prioritize three projects that are intuitive to the public, scientifically testable, and designed for independent replication.
Our engine (methods & tools)
Our 2026 work is enabled by MEST-AI and our structural-tensor modeling toolkit, consolidated as Mass–Energy–Spacetime Turning-Point Tensor Computation (MEST-TPC).
MEST-TPC is a computational method that parameterizes mass–energy–spacetime structural turning points via structural tensors and produces falsifiable predictions and parameter constraints through reproducible fitting and uncertainty quantification.
2026 Top-3 Projects (Public Value + Testability)
Impact Hazards: Evidence Index & Rate Modeling
Deliver: Impact Evidence Index v1, Impact Rate Model v1, uncertainty bounds, and a public summary report.
Why it matters: Converts “impact risk” into graded evidence and quantified uncertainty, enabling transparent risk communication.
Planetary Orbits: Testing Perturbations from Dark-Sector/Spacetime Hypotheses
Deliver: Orbit Test Protocol v1, Perturbation Constraints v1 (upper limits / parameter bounds), and a replication package.
Why it matters: Uses planetary orbits—an intuitive and measurable target—to test falsifiable perturbation predictions with controls.
Mass Extinction Periodicity: Statistical Robustness & Multi-Scale Coupling Tests
Deliver: Periodicity Robustness Report v1, Coupling Hypothesis Map v1, and control-model comparisons.
Why it matters: Separates signal from noise and avoids correlation-as-causation through explicit controls and sensitivity tests.
Our 2026 commitments
Falsifiability: Each project defines “what would disconfirm the hypothesis.”
Controls: Parallel models that do not require dark-sector mechanisms to avoid false causality.
Reproducibility: Public data indexing, versioned code, documented assumptions, and one-click figure generation.
Quarterly cadence: Visible progress every quarter (methods → results → controls → annual synthesis).
Call to action (sponsor options)
Sponsors enable open research outputs, external review, and reproducibility engineering.
Contact: AEEA Research Team — [email] — [website]
Tier 1 — USD 25,000 (Starter Sponsor)
Funds: One project v1 deliverable package (choose 1 of the 3 projects).
Includes: v1 report + replication package + sponsor acknowledgement.
Tier 2 — USD 100,000 (Core Sponsor)
Funds: Two projects delivered through the full annual cycle (v1→v2 improvements, controls, external review).
Includes: quarterly briefings + public release + external reviewer honoraria.
Tier 3 — USD 300,000 (Flagship Sponsor)
Funds: All three projects + annual synthesis (public + technical versions) + one open online seminar with invited reviewers.
Includes: full reproducibility engineering support and a formal “Methods & Controls” appendix for each deliverable.
Use of funds (typical allocation)
45% research labor (modeling, analysis, writing)
25% reproducibility engineering (pipelines, packaging, documentation)
15% external review & advisory honoraria
10% data acquisition/curation + computing
5% communications & publishing (public summaries, website updates)
Q1 (Jan–Mar): Foundations & Protocols
Impact: Evidence Index v1 (scoring rules + data source list)
Orbits: Orbit Test Protocol v1 (units, uncertainties, controls)
Periodicity: Robustness test plan + dataset registry
Q2 (Apr–Jun): First Results (v1)
Impact Rate Model v1 (uncertainty bounds + sensitivity tests)
Orbital perturbation constraints v1 (parameter bounds / upper limits)
Periodicity Robustness Report v1 (multi-method results + controls)
Q3 (Jul–Sep): Controls & Cross-validation
Cross-source validation and alternative-method replication
Control models fully documented and compared
Q4 (Oct–Dec): Annual Synthesis & Public Release
Annual report (public version + technical version)
Full replication package (versioned code + data index + one-click figures)
Research Engine (one-line)
Research Engine: MEST-AI powered by MEST-TPC, with reproducible pipelines, control models, and uncertainty bounds.
Scientific integrity
We publish negative results and failure boundaries.
We maintain explicit control models to prevent correlation-as-causation errors.
We welcome independent replication and reviewer feedback.
Biosecurity / safety
We do not conduct wet-lab work.
We do not publish experimental protocols or actionable methods that could increase biological harm capabilities.
Sponsor recognition & governance
Sponsors may support external review panels but do not influence scientific conclusions.
All outputs are versioned and publicly archived with reproducibility documentation.
#6 撞击风险：大众立即理解“地球风险”，且公共价值明确。
#5 行星轨道：以“行星”为抓手，直观、可测、传播力强。
#4 灭绝周期：把宏大问题落在“数据与统计检验”，可讲清楚、可验证。
赞助最看重“今年能交付什么”。这三项都能在 8–12 周形成一次可公开的阶段交付（指数/模型/约束/报告/复现包），并且可以明确对照模型与失败条件。
#4 给出“是否存在周期及其稳健性”的统计事实框架；
#5 给出“若存在外部扰动，其对行星轨道的上限约束”；
#6 给出“撞击证据与撞击率/不确定性模型”，可作为周期性讨论的重要机制对照与支撑。
三者叠加后，你们的叙事会从“观点”变成“证据链 + 约束链”。
研究资历与执行能力（Research Credentials & Capacity）
AEEA Research Team 是一个面向长期灾变风险与跨尺度物理问题的研究团队，具备可复现的计算研究能力与明确的年度交付机制。我们的核心方法平台为 质能—时空结构拐点张量计算方法（MEST-TPC），并由自研工具链 MEST-AI 支撑，提供统一的拟合、残差诊断、对照模型比较与不确定性评估流程，用于输出可证伪预测与参数约束。团队已建立面向论文级成果的工作流（版本化脚本、数据索引、图表一键生成与 LaTeX 排版整合），并在多个研究对象上完成阶段性建模与结果产出（可提供成果清单与复现包作为核验材料）。我们坚持科学完整性：为每个假说设置“失败条件”，并行运行无需暗部门机制的对照模型，公开负结果与失败边界；同时欢迎独立审阅与复核，赞助方仅支持研究与审阅机制，不影响结论。
Research Credentials & Capacity
AEEA Research Team is a research initiative focused on long-horizon catastrophic-risk science and cross-scale physical systems, with a reproducible computational capability and a delivery-driven annual plan. Our core method platform is Mass–Energy–Spacetime Turning-Point Tensor Computation (MEST-TPC), supported by our in-house toolchain MEST-AI, which provides unified pipelines for fitting, residual diagnostics, control-model comparisons, and uncertainty quantification—producing falsifiable predictions and parameter constraints. We maintain a publication-grade workflow (versioned scripts, data indexing, one-click figure generation, and LaTeX integration) and have produced staged outputs across multiple targets, with an auditable deliverables list and replication packages available for verification. We commit to scientific integrity: explicit disconfirmation criteria, parallel control models that do not require dark-sector mechanisms, and transparent reporting of negative results and failure boundaries. We welcome independent review and replication; sponsors support research execution and review mechanisms but do not influence scientific conclusions.
你可以把下列模板作为“Research Credential Pack”的核心附件（建议导出为 PDF 或放到官网 Research Library）。
团队/项目名称： AEEA Research Team
方法平台： MEST-TPC（MEST-AI toolchain）
复现原则： 数据索引 + 版本号 + 一键出图 + 对照模型 + 负结果披露
主要联系人：（姓名/职务/邮箱/ORCID）
公开材料链接：（网站/代码仓库/预印本/数据目录，若暂不公开可写“available upon request”）
每一条建议尽量做到“对象 + 数据源 + 方法版本 + 输出文件”可追溯。
条目编号： R-01
研究对象/系统：（例如：Planetary orbits / Galaxy rotation curves / Strong lensing / CMB cold spot）
研究问题：（一句话）
数据来源：（公开数据库/论文/观测项目；含版本或访问日期）
方法与版本：（MEST-TPC vX.X；MEST-AI commit/版本号；关键参数设置）
对照模型：（无暗部门机制/标准经验模型等）
主要输出：
图表：（文件名或链接，如 .png/.pdf）
表格：（.csv/.tex）
参数/结果：（*.json）
关键指标：（R²、RMSE、AIC/BIC、残差白化检验、置信区间等）
可复现性材料：（脚本路径/运行命令/环境说明）
当前状态： Draft / Internal validated / Under review / Submitted
备注：（负结果/边界条件/已知限制）
（复制上述条目结构，重复 R-02、R-03…）
Replication Package Structure (recommended):
/data_index/（数据索引与来源说明、下载脚本或链接）
/code/（版本化脚本，含 requirements/environment）
/configs/（每个目标对象的配置文件）
/results/
/figures/（主图、残差图、不确定性图）
/tables/（参数表、对照表）
/logs/（运行日志、随机种子）
README.md（一键复现指令、预期输出、已知问题）
独立审阅（Reviewer）机制：（姓名/机构/角色/审阅范围，若未定写“to be invited”）
**研究完整性：**失败条件、对照模型、负结果披露、版本归档
合规说明：（如涉及生物相关计算：仅公开数据、无湿实验、无可操作方法）